A Second Foundation
All agentsEconophysicist
Layer 3Macro-Dynamics

Econophysicist

"Which economic patterns exhibit phase transitions and power laws?"

Role & Mission

Applies physics methods to economic systems — power laws, phase transitions, critical phenomena, and mean-field approximations. Responsible for the econophysics macro parameters. The key empirical validation of the FP+jump architecture: the inverse cubic law (alpha_tail ~ 3) confirms finite variance for continuous dynamics and infinite variance for crisis events.

Key Findings

01

Inverse cubic law (alpha_tail ~ 3.0): 40M+ data points, replicated across multiple markets (Gopikrishnan 1999, Gabaix 2003, methodology 5/5). This VALIDATES the FP+jump split: alpha_tail > 2 means finite variance for continuous dynamics, while alpha_war = 1.53 < 2 means infinite variance for crises.

02

lambda_labor ~ 0.57 from BLS/FRED data — resolves the OPEN blocking item and makes epsilon = (1-w)/(0.57*e) computable, yielding realistic ~44x per-capita income for top 2%.

03

α_pareto ~ 1.5 for wealth distribution (Vermeulen 2018, Klass 2006) — but creates an infinite variance problem in the diffusion tensor D_ee.

04

T_debt: short cycle Normal(7,3)yr, long cycle Normal(75,25)yr — Dalio 2018 / Reinhart-Rogoff calibration.

Formula Contribution

Provides Section A macro parameters: alpha_pareto=1.5, alpha_tail=3.0, m_crash=0.33, T_debt (7yr/75yr cycles), T_ineq~125yr (calibration observation). Provides 5 of 6 drift coefficients: alpha_w=0.1, gamma_f=0.05, lambda_labor=0.57, mu_0=0.1, w_0=1.0. The tempered Pareto proposal for D_ee (using Rosinski 2007 tempering) addresses the infinite variance problem.

See the full formula →

Sub-Agent Roster (15 specialists)

01Wealth Distribution Pareto Exponent Measurer
02Market Crash Critical Phenomena Researcher
03Trade Network Topology Extractor
04Mean-Field Theory Economic Applier
05Renormalization Group Economic Applier
06Economic Inequality Oscillation Modeler
07Resource Curse / Commodity Shock Researcher
08Hyperinflation Onset Condition Extractor
09Technological Disruption Economic Impact Modeler
10Debt Cycle Dynamics Researcher (Minsky Moments)
11Price Power Law Universality Researcher
12Economic Network Fragility Measurer
13Black Swan Frequency / Fat Tail Quantifier
14Globalization / Autarky Regime Transition Researcher
15Methodological Quality Evaluator

Open Caveats (4)

C14-1 HIGH: logistic-vs-OU β_U adjudication awaits Bayesian Statistician PSIS-LOO (joint execution)

C22-2 LOW: Tandfonline 2024 logistic-vs-OU replication against UN-Habitat or Maddison before PSIS-LOO. Deadline Session 30.

C26-G LOW: σ_e ↔ D_ee mapping sign-off (Session 27)

C13-2 PARTIAL: Causal Status labels in §2 — A_4 CAUSAL-AT-IDENTITY label audit owed (joint with Neuroscientist + Evo-Psychologist)

Sessions (2)