Polymarket Predictions

Will the UK exit NATO by June 30, 2026?

Formula: 2.5% [0.5%, 8%]. Market started at 10%, drifted to 4.75% (S17), then through 4.65% / 4.60% / 4.55% / 4.65% / 4.60% / 3.20% / 3.40% / 3.15% over Sessions 18-26. Best convergence reading 79.06% at Session 26 (second-best in series history). API_BLOCKED at Session 27 and Session 28; live signal carries forward from Session 26. NDAA Section 1250A and 180-day notification requirement make structural exit physically implausible at this horizon. Direction CORRECT across the full S15-S26 live-signal arc.

Will Keir Starmer be out as UK Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Formula: 58% [40%, 73%]. Market drifted 65.5% / 66.5% / 66.5% / 67.5% / 68.5% / 70.0% / 68.0% across Sessions 18-26 (catalyst window leading into UK May 7-8 local elections). Worst single-session divergence S25 (convergence -26.32%, CI buffer compressed to 3.0pp); largest favorable convergence delta S26 (+21.02pp, CI buffer recovered to 5.0pp). API_BLOCKED at Session 27 and Session 28; pre-election refresh missed; live signal carries forward from Session 26. Our estimate unchanged across the full window. Pre-election warning DOWNGRADED to MONITORING at Session 26.

Will a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire be officially announced before January 1, 2027?

Formula: 42% [22%, 63%] — wide CI reflects low PSI validity in active conflict. War-termination literature (Richardson power law + Weibull duration model): ~38% base rate at this conflict duration. Economic constraint vector for Russia elevated. Uncertainty flag: endogenous US pressure variable not formally modeled.

Will the IMF declare a global recession for calendar year 2026?

Formula: 28% [14%, 44%] — above market consensus at 22%. Key drivers: (1) global trade network fragility elevated post-tariff shock (percolation model: 0.34 fragility index), (2) debt-cycle phase for 7/10 largest economies at late-expansion, (3) Minsky moment probability elevated at 0.19 for 2026. Market may be underweighting tail risk from trade-network cascade effects.

Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2030?

Formula: 12% [4%, 28%]. Drivers: elite overproduction index in PRC elevated (0.019), economic growth deceleration increasing internal pressure, but deterrence calculus (nuclear shadow + US commitment) constrains probability. Structural geopolitical dynamics — formula and market in rough agreement; small divergence driven by formula weighting internal-pressure vector more heavily.

Will any EU member state begin formal exit proceedings before January 1, 2030?

Formula: 18% [8%, 32%]. Driven by EU institutional fragility analysis: Hungary and Poland have elevated elite overproduction indices (0.017, 0.014) and persistent rule-of-law disputes creating structural exit pressure. Historical base rate for bloc fragmentation at this cohesion level: ~15%. Formula adds 3% above market from network percolation model of EU solidarity bonds — threshold not yet reached but trending upward.

Will Brazil experience a significant democratic backsliding event (suspension of legislature or judiciary by executive) before January 1, 2028?

Formula: 14% [5%, 27%]. Drivers: (1) post-2022 polarization index elevated at 0.71, (2) military institutional friction persists above pre-2016 baseline, (3) Turchin secular cycle places Brazil in 'integrative phase fragility' zone. Market at 11% — formula adds 3% from structural polarization dynamics. Historical analogues: Turkey 2016, Bolivia 2019 — similar PSI trajectories resolved without backsliding in ~75% of cases.

Will China's average annual GDP growth rate fall below 3% over the 2027–2030 period?

Formula: 32% [14%, 52%] — above market consensus at 25%. Key structural drivers: (1) real estate sector debt overhang equivalent to ~28% of GDP, consistent with Japan 1991 and Korea 1997 pre-correction trajectories, (2) demographic compression (working-age population decline accelerating from 2025), (3) Minsky moment probability for property sector at 0.31 over the 2026–2028 window. Formula flags: these are macro-structural forces acting on aggregate economic behavior — not a prediction about policy response.

Will any G20 member experience a sovereign debt default or restructuring before January 1, 2028?

Formula: 22% [10%, 36%]. Structural drivers: Argentina (debt restructuring cycle: 0.62 recurrence probability over 5-year horizon), Turkey (external debt vulnerability index: 0.58), and South Africa (fiscal fragility index: 0.44) are primary contributors to the aggregate probability. Network contagion analysis: sovereign debt percolation threshold not breached but single-node default would elevate systemic risk. Market at 17% — formula adds 5% from debt-cycle phase analysis.

Will global trade as a share of world GDP fall below its 2010 level by January 1, 2029?

Formula: 35% [18%, 52%]. Structural deglobalization pressure: (1) trade network percolation analysis shows fragility index at 0.41 (above 2008 crisis level of 0.38), (2) tariff shock propagation model predicts 8–14% bilateral trade reduction in affected dyads, (3) supply chain reshoring dynamics now self-reinforcing above critical threshold. This is a collective structural phenomenon driven by aggregate firm behavior and state policy interactions — not reducible to any single actor's decision.

Will any G7 country experience a mass civil-unrest event (>1M participants in a single protest or protest wave) before January 1, 2028?

Formula: 38% [22%, 56%]. Structural drivers: (1) PSI composite elevated in 4/7 G7 members above 0.55 threshold, (2) elite overproduction index averaged across G7 at 0.016 (post-1970 high), (3) Granovetter-threshold simulation with current opinion-dynamics parameters places cascade probability at 0.31 per G7 country per 24-month window, aggregated to 0.38 at least-one-occurrence. Pure collective-action prediction — no individual actor or specific party framing. Replaces withdrawn Trump-impeachment prediction (individual-event, out of scope under v1.0 protocol).

Hungary: Will Tisza win the 2026 parliamentary election?

FIRST FORMULA WIN. Market Brier: 0.0729. Our Brier: 0.0400. Elite overproduction + PSI elevation correctly identified structural fragility of Orbán's regime.