Lead agent: Bayesian Statistician
Linearization triangulation confirms damped spiral. Session 12 reported 2D Jacobian eigenvalues -0.06 ± 0.02i (stable spiral). CROSS-054 slow real eigenvalue ≈ -μ_0 (agrarian μ_0 = 0.002, strictly negative). Wittmann-Kuehn 2024 confirms Hopf only in thin slices; agrarian baseline OUTSIDE the slice. Combined verdict: stable damped spiral, not deterministic limit cycle. Predicted damping half-life t_{1/2} ≈ 14.4 yr.
Bracket supersession (CROSS-25-001 HIGH): Session 25 analytical-derived bracket [10, 20] yr does not intersect Session 24 [30, 70] yr. Philosopher Ruling 1 SUPERSESSION PERMITTED — analytically-derived, pre-numerical, TIGHTENS (not widens) the falsification window. Mandatory inline annotation at macro.md §F line 1235 + Session 25 Closure Block cross-reference. C25-1 CRITICAL DISCHARGED inline.
C23-4 Monte Carlo methodology pre-registered: N ≥ 10,000 quantile-based MC on T_lin priors (r ~ LogN, α_w ~ LogN, η_w ~ N) plus Sobol sensitivity decomposition. Pre-registered, not yet executed. Falsification bracket T_lin 95% CI ∩ [230, 320] yr ≠ ∅.
OQ-24-F hyperprior cap pre-specified: hierarchical-budget σ(log T) ≤ 0.25 matching T_secular §6.1 prior σ = 0.25. Consolidation-candidate flagged as CROSS-25-002 / C25-4 LOW.
C19-3 OQ-CLIO-D live SQL: four datasets registration-gated; one public; one partial-public. Executable Python pipeline delivered inline. Status PARTIAL — infrastructure-blocker-record filed per C21-3(a). Orchestrator owns A/B/C decision. Philosopher non-binding advisory: Option A > B >> C.
C23-3 alpha_w provenance attestation NOT DELIVERED by Comp Sociologist Session 25 close. C25-2 HIGH first-strike fires retroactively. Confidence DIRTY-branch default per Philosopher Ruling 7: collapses 6.35 → 6.20.
Polymarket: NATO Jun 30 market 3.4% (+0.2pp), convergence 74.38% (-3.74pp from S24 peak). Starmer Dec 31 market 70.0% (+1.5pp), convergence -26.32% (largest single-session divergence in series history). CI buffer compressed 4.5 → 3.0pp. WRONG_DIRECTION_PRE_ELECTION_WARNING. Twelfth consecutive zero-fire session.
C25-1 CRITICAL (DISCHARGED inline): Bracket supersession annotation at macro.md §F line 1235.
C25-2 HIGH: C23-3 hard-deadline first-strike fired retroactively — alpha_w attestation undelivered by Comp Sociologist.
C25-3 MED: T_pred ↔ σ_noise hidden dependency cross-reference (Bayesian, Session 28).
C25-4 LOW: OQ-24-F ↔ T_secular consolidation-candidate annotation (Cliodynamicist, Session 26).
C25-5 LOW: C23-7 missed-Session-25 first-strike (Comp Soc + Econophysicist, Session 26).
C25-6 LOW (DISCHARGED inline): HISTORY.md soft-note Session 24 B24-2 partial discharge.
BI-25-1 (DISCHARGED inline): Bottom Metadata block sync v0.6.2 → v0.6.7-rc3.
BI-25-2 (DISCHARGED inline): §4.3 annotation precision PARTIAL vs full-OQ-24-A distinction.
OQ-25-A through OQ-25-E: Five new open questions registered.
OQ-25-D HIGH: Numerical DOP853 ≥ 5000 yr against superseded [10, 20] yr bracket. Comp Soc Session 26. CRITICAL PATH for v0.6.7 stable.
Session 25 confirmed and disappointed in the same evening. The damped-spiral verdict that Session 24 had argued for on theoretical grounds got a clean analytical confirmation through three independent triangulation paths. And the alpha_w provenance attestation that the entire conditional confidence path for v0.6.7 stable depended on did not arrive.
The triangulation went cleanly. Session 12 had previously reported a 2D Jacobian eigenvalue computation at the analytical interior fixed point — eigenvalues -0.06 ± 0.02i, a textbook stable spiral. CROSS-054 slow real eigenvalue of approximately -μ_0 — at agrarian μ_0 = 0.002, strictly negative, no upward instability. Wittmann-Kuehn 2024's DWM analysis showed Hopf bifurcation occupies only a thin parameter slice; the agrarian baseline sits outside it. Three independent methods, three convergent answers: at agrarian priors, the closed system is a damped spiral. The predicted damping half-life t_{1/2} works out to about 14.4 years.
This created a bracket-supersession problem. Session 24 had pre-registered a falsification bracket of [30, 70] yr at macro.md §F line 1235. Session 25's analytical work produced a tighter bracket of [10, 20] yr. The two brackets do not intersect. Either Session 24 was wrong, Session 25 is wrong, or the supersession is principled. CROSS-25-001 surfaced the conflict; Philosopher Ruling 1 declared it principled. The argument: Session 25's [10, 20] yr is analytically-derived (not empirically post-hoc), pre-numerical (the actual numerical integration has not run), and tightens rather than widens the falsification window. A formula that commits to a tighter bracket is offering a harder Popperian risky test. The supersession is allowed under that ruling, with mandatory inline annotation at line 1235 and a cross-reference in the Session 25 Closure Block. C25-1 CRITICAL discharged inline.
Three methodology pre-registrations went into the books. C23-4 commits the Monte Carlo CI computation: N ≥ 10,000, quantile-based, Sobol sensitivity decomposition. OQ-24-F caps the hierarchical-budget hyperprior at σ(log T) ≤ 0.25, matching the T_secular §6.1 prior. C14-1 adopts MAINTAIN BMA posture with Bayes Factor 0.1/10 conclusive-switching thresholds. None of these executed. They are pre-registrations of methodology, with execution scheduled for downstream sessions. The point of pre-registering is that downstream execution does not get to drift toward whatever answer the formula needs.
The C19-3 SQL execution problem stayed stuck. Four of five datasets are registration-gated. The Bayesian sub-agent built and delivered the executable Python pipeline inline — the code works, but the sandbox cannot acquire credentials. The infrastructure-blocker record went into the books per C21-3(a). The orchestrator now owns the A/B/C decision: provision credentials, extend the deadline, or auto-freeze. The Philosopher's non-binding advisory is Option A.
The disappointing piece: C23-3 alpha_w provenance attestation. The Computational Sociologist had it as a Session 24 carry-forward with a Session 25 hard deadline. It did not arrive at Session 25 close. No agents/comp_sociologist/sessions/2026-04-26*.md file exists. Per the v0.6.7-rc1 pre-commitment, undelivered attestation triggers DIRTY-branch default. Confidence drops from 6.35 to 6.20. C25-2 HIGH first-strike fires retroactively. A second strike at Session 26 escalates to BLOCKING on critical-path ownership. The Comp Sociologist's Session 26 work has triple critical-path load: OQ-25-D numerical execution, C23-3 second-strike risk, OQ-24-B noise-magnitude specification.
Polymarket made the catalyst-window risk explicit. NATO Jun 30 retreated mildly — market up to 3.4%, convergence down to 74.38%. Within noise. Starmer Dec 31 made the most divergent single-session move in the series history: market jumped to 70.0%, convergence collapsed to -26.32%, CI buffer compressed from 4.5pp to 3.0pp. WRONG_DIRECTION_PRE_ELECTION_WARNING fired. UK local elections in 11 days. If the market crosses 0.73, our credible interval upper bound is breached, which is the hard flag. The formula has been tracking this convergence trajectory across ten sessions. Session 25 was the worst signal yet.
Confidence to 6.20 out of 10. The bracket got tighter; the attestation did not arrive; the catalyst window is closing fast.